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Page 469

"The State Planning Commission of the Soviet Union is the competent department of the Soviet economy. It needs to adhere to the central management and economically independent enterprises, associations and organizations in accordance with the national plan and social development, and to consider the principles of different industries and regions."

The exchange delegation led by Sokolnikov, vice chairman of the State Planning Commission of the Soviet Union, and the Chinese computer technology team led by Tang Hua were conducting exchanges.

China completed its first national census in 1953-1954. The census data was collated extremely fast, with very few errors and a large amount of census information. This of course attracted the attention of the Soviet Union.In particular, the remote computer communication network established during the census was used for communication between the State Council and the State Planning Commission after the census, which aroused the Soviets' interest.

After Tang Hua's explanation, now the comrades in the Soviet Union have decided to switch from the previous model of buying a single computer and a "local area network" group machine to buying a complete system, including computer hardware, software, network equipment and architecture, data exchange equipment, Package contract including storage server and so on.

In order to order such a system for the Soviet State Planning Commission, of course, it is necessary to understand the needs of customers first.

So the Soviet comrades came to meet with the Chinese computer technology team for a meeting.

"Take the current five-year plan as an example," Sokolnikov said. "Our five-year plan is divided into seven parts, with 67 production cores, 1340 product categories, and [-] independent products."

"The first part of the five-year plan is production, and the formulation of a production plan means the calibration of the properties of tens of thousands of commodities."

"The second part, use, the core is to compile the balance sheet, including the balance sheet of the main commodities compiled by the State Planning Commission, the balance sheet of all commodities in the country compiled by the material supply and marketing agency, and the national material supply bureau and various ministries and commissions. Balance sheet of other commodities."

"Part Three, Labor Distribution."

"Part Four, Investment Plan."

"Part five, technical development goals."

……

Tang Hua and the group members simply took notes while listening.

The Soviet Union's planned economic system is huge, complex in structure, and difficult to operate, and there is no other in the world.

what does that mean? ...meaning that even if computers and networks are introduced, massive computer support is required.This is great news.

Leonid Kontorovich: "The management system of the planned economy of the Soviet Union has more than 40 All-Union Ministries and Union-Republic Ministries, 280 management bureaus under the All-Union Ministry, and 400 management bureaus under the Union-Republic Ministry. Management levels In terms of industrial management, the most industrial management is six-level management, and generally four to five levels."

Tang Hua raised his head and took a few glances at the member of the Soviet State Planning Commission in the delegation and the second expert who spoke after the vice chairman of the Planning Commission.

Well, he was a Nobel Laureate in Economics in 1975, an economist and mathematician, and a member of the USSR Academy of Sciences.

The planned economy of the Soviet Union not only made plans, but also used extremely advanced and complex mathematical models to calculate the parameters involved in the plan.

The planned economy of the Soviet Union can actually be said to be supported by linear programming and operations research science.

In 1938, Kantorovich proposed the solution multiplier method for solving linear programming problems. Since then, the State Planning Commission of the Soviet Union has tried to build a material product balance body.After that, the calculation methods and software and hardware measures were continuously improved.The ultimate goal is -

Calculate the amount of undifferentiated human labor contained in all commodities produced by mankind (the USSR).

What does this mean? ...Let's make an analogy.

The difficulty of this calculation is similar to the difficulty of finding a long-term precise numerical solution of the three-body motion.

Because commodities will affect each other, and the chain of influence is extremely long.To produce a spoon, stainless steel is followed by carbon steel, followed by iron, followed by iron ore... The raw material is actually very simple, and the complicated part is people.The production of spoons requires labor. Behind the labor cost of a worker... are the hundreds of commodities that the worker needs to consume for life. If each commodity changes, the labor cost should change.

Is it very broken?

Obviously, the Soviet Union did not stop trying the violent calculation method because of too much calculation. OGAS in the 60s and 70s and ASDR in the 70s and 80s continued until the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Counting the disintegration of the Soviet Union, of course, cannot be counted.According to the ultimate goal of the Soviet State Planning Commission, probably every five-year plan needs to use Tianhe III to count 20 years.

Do you think that with 20 Tianhe IIIs, this matter can be settled within a year?Think beautifully.

Calculating the human labor content of all commodities only captures the base value for the "perfect functioning" of a planned economy.

To put it a bit more extreme, on the main road in the Soviet Union, a worker took out rubles to buy a watch from another worker on the black market. This "unplanned" action would immediately cause the entire calculated numerical system to be reset.

……

Kantorovich spoke, and of course the topic quickly turned to mathematics and computing needs, communication needs.

"...In short, the computer system we need needs to be specially optimized for solving the extreme value problem of the linear objective function under linear constraints." Kantorovich said.

Tang Hua: "No problem. However, I think you have also estimated that the computer system cannot solve the numerical solutions of these linear equations with infinite precision, but needs an approximate value."

"Academician Tang Hua, I have been studying the relationship between shadow prices and decision variables. In the dual problem of linear programming, this relationship has always been a mystery. What do you think?" Kantorovich said I became more and more relaxed, and simply started to discuss academics.

"Academician Kantorovich, I don't have much research in this field," Tang Hua shook his head and declined politely, "Although I am a member of China's Planning Commission...but I am not in charge of economic calculations. For shadow prices, use Lagrange multiplier It seems to be more concise to express or define by numbers. Why don't we go back to the topic, you provide the numerical accuracy range required by the State Planning Commission, and we will equip the Soviet State Planning Commission with computers with corresponding computing capabilities based on this numerical accuracy range and computer groups."

Chapter 74, is it barely considered an industrial country?

In 1952, when China was preparing to draw up its first five-year plan, when it sent a delegation to the State Planning Commission of the Soviet Union with the draft for advice, the Soviet comrades explained this to Li Fuchun, telling the Chinese comrades, "This is the correct five-year plan. planning method".

Then...the team led by Li Fuchun contacted the Soviet State Planning Commission for a period of time in the Soviet Union, and voluntarily gave up.China cannot formulate a national plan like the Soviet Union.

If a five-year plan is compiled like the Soviet Union, thousands of first drafts of directives, opinion drafts, and revisions will fly around, and countless party committees, government agencies, enterprises, and trade unions will continue to organize meetings.This is only the first five-year plan.National plans become more complex as economies grow in size.

In the end, Li Fuchun could only send a telegram to Gao Shan, then chairman of the State Planning Commission: We are too stupid to learn.

The country lacks highly educated cadres, especially high-achieving students who are proficient in mathematics and economics.

Not to mention higher education, at that time there were not many cadres with a junior high school education or above.

The planned economy of the Soviet Union had to be led by scientists to conduct massive statistics and issue massive precise production and adjustment instructions. (If possible, the Soviet Union hopes to perform some calculations after the statistics are completed)

This means that China in 1953 could not play this trick.

In real history, China did not play this trick until 1958. Later, it simply gave up treatment and went to its own "rough planned economy" or "Buddhist planned economy".

But what to say...

From 1949 to 1978, under the "rough planned economy", the growth rate of China's industrial and agricultural output value was higher than that of the Soviet Union's "correct planned economy".Needless to say what happened in China in the past 29 years, the economic growth rate in 29 of the 4 years was negative, so the total growth rate was still higher than that of the Soviet Union.

Excluding the years when the Soviet Union milked China, from 1962 to 1978, China's total growth rate was also higher than that of the Soviet Union during the same period.

Perhaps there is a shocking secret hidden in it: the inaccuracy of the rough planned economy-in every link of the plan, the errors generated or reserved are the key to the matter.

……

Tang Hua secretly made up his mind that as long as China is allowed to return to this track, it is safer for China to continue the path of "Buddha-based planned economy".

The reasons are not hard to find.Although China is now the supplier of computer equipment to the Soviet Union and East China, there is no shortage of computing power, but we lack educated cadres.

There is also a lack of wages for such a large group of cadres.

Communication with the State Planning Commission of the USSR lasted for a long time.

Although I intend to follow the path of "Buddhist-style planned economy (bug-removed version)", I still had a very speculative chat with Kantorovich about mathematical models and the national economy.

Kantorovich's algorithms and mathematical models are still one of the commonly used theories for financial investment and asset accounting. Of course, Wall Street's bigwigs will not say that they are using Kantorovich's theory to speculate in stocks, but that they are using linear solutions. Planning and Lagrangian systems for stock research.

"For the tens of thousands of commodities needed for the operation of the Soviet Union, we plan to select 3300 commodities that consume the most total labor time and are the most critical to the operation of the country for calculation," said Kantorovich. one-third."